Tuesday, December 8, 2009

My prospects 40-31

Recently, I posted my Twins prospects 50-41. Today I will tackle the next 10. The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:


For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

40. Kelvin Mota Reliever 6/23/1988.
He was signed in 2007 out of Bani, Dominican Republic. He went 0-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 12 appearances/20.2 innings for both levels of rookie ball. He gave up 13 hits while striking out 17 and walking just 6. He is a young reliever with good stuff and good numbers, but with a limited track record.

39. Michael Gonzales First Base 6/16/1988.
He was a Twins 9th round draft pick in 2008 out of Diablo Valley College in California. He batted .304/.364/.477 for Elizabethtown. He has some power and walks a little, but he strikes out too much. He will have to improve all these facets of his game to become a major prospect.

38. Anderson Hidalgo Third Base 9/5/1988.
He was signed in 2006 out of Valencia, Venezuela. He batted .291/.379/.469 for Elizabethtown. He has some power and draws walks. He has played 2B in the past and at 5'9" he might have to switch back there. Still relatively young, if he can keep his OPS up, as it has been the last 2 seasons, he may emerge as a legitimate prospect.

37. Jose Gonzalez Lefty Reliever 2/3/1990.
He was signed signed in 2007 out of Tucupita, Venezuela. He went 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in 8 appearances/12.2 innings for the Gulf Coast Twins. He gave up 9 hits while striking out 10 and walking just 2. He's young, but the numbers are good. There is not alot to go on yet however. He also had good numbers in the DSL in 2008. He could be one to watch.

36. Christopher Herrman Outfielder 11/24/1987.
He was a Twins 6th round draft pick in 2009 out of the University of Miami. He batted .297/.391/.453 for Elizabethtown. He has a good walk rate and doesn't strike out too much. He could be a great offensive player if he can add a little more power.

35. Brian Dozier Shortstop 5/15/1987.
He was a Twins 8th round draft pick in 2009 out of Southern Mississippi. He batted .353/.417/.431 for Elizabethtown. He had 17 doubles in 218 ABs and only struck out 26 times. You have to love the BA/OBP. If he can keep those numbers up at the higher levels, it will make up for his lack of power. He also had alot of errors at SS, which could speak to his range or maybe he isn't a perfect fit for the position.

34. Daniel Santana Shortstop 11/7/1990.
He was signed in 2007 from Monta Plata, Dominican Republic. He batted .265/.302/.418 for the Gulf Coast Twins with 12 steals and just 1 caught stealing. He has a long way to go, but is quite young. He also had alot of errors at SS, which could speak to his range or maybe he isn't long at the position.

33. Luke Hughes Infield/Outfield 8/2/1984.
He was signed in 2002 out of Perth, Australia. He batted .254/.335/.454 at three levels. He burst onto the prospect scene in 2008, but has battled alot of injuries. He has decent power when healthy, but no real position. If he could stay healthy he could be a bench bat or DH/LF as soon as 2010 in the major leagues, if not he may never get to the MLB. I saw him play many times in 2008 and he was alot of fun to watch offensively. Hopefully he can stay healthy and be a good RH power bat off the Twins bench.

32. Juan Portes Outfield 11/26/1985.
He was a Twins 15th round draft pick in 2004 out of Boston, MA. He had somewhat of a breakout year in 2009, batting .297/.366/.434 at AA New Britain. His OPS improved .86 points over the previous season, while moving up a level in the organization. More improvement like this and he will be a future major leaguer.

31. Anthony Slama Relief Pitcher 1/6/1984.
He was a Twins 39th round draft pick in 2006 out of the University of San Diego. He went 4-4 with a 2.67 ERA in 62 appearances/81 innings in AA and AAA while giving up 57 hits while striking out 112 and walking 40. Generally considered one of the top relief prospects in the Twins system, I'd have ranked him higher if I just used a list of names. He isn't that young anymore and he walks too many, but he should be a viable middle/late reliever soon.

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